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Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani assassination: Why India should be prepared to act on multiple fronts

This war may be like no other. After the US assassinated Maj Gen Qassem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s elite Quds Force, with an airstrike at Baghdad airport on Friday, Iranian retaliation is almost a foregone conclusion. The strike crossed a red line, and the coming conflict has the potential to spread mayhem across the region. India will not remain untouched.

Soleimani, in US General Stanley McCrystal’s words, had “grown from a military commander into a ghostly puppet master. … the humble leader’s steady hand has helped guide Iranian foreign policy for decades—and there is no denying his successes on the battlefield. … Most ruthlessly and at the cost of all else, he has forged lasting relationships to bolster Iran’s position in the region. No other individual has had comparable success in aligning and empowering Shiite allies in the Levant. … His shrewd pragmatism has transformed (Quds Force) into a major influencer in intelligence, financial, and political spheres beyond Iran’s borders.”

To this extent, Soleimani’s death is a powerful setback to Iran’s capabilities, particularly in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, and may diminish the Iran-Russia relationship that has played a key role in stabilising the Levant in the past couple of years. Adding to Iran’s tottering economy, systematically being crushed under US sanctions, and a restive population at home chafing against restrictive politics, Iran will be scrambling to pull itself together, even to add more troops to its army.

What are the range of retaliatory actions that Iran can take? Soleimani’s successor Brig Gen Esmail Ghaani said: “Be patient, and you will see the bodies of Americans all over the Middle East.” Soleimani was credited as the strategist behind the drone-missile attack on the Abqaiq-Khurais oil refinery in Saudi Arabia, so we know that capability exists. Saudi Arabia will be the likely target of Iranian wrath along with the UAE. Targeted killings across the region are a distinct possibility, of both Americans and its allies — remember the attempt on the Saudi envoy in Washington DC. This could invite US and Israeli response.

Following the Stuxnet attack on its nuclear centrifuges that was discovered in 2010, Iran has developed into one of the world’s top cyber-offensive powers. Cyber attacks are therefore very likely— they cut across borders and are relatively inexpensive. If Iran has developed the capability to target critical infrastructure of its enemy nations, that could take the battle to the next level.

Contrary to popular belief, Iran is unlikely to hit oil supplies—oil prices did jump on Friday on these fears but settled soon after. The fact is, there is more than enough oil supplies in the world for prices to stay up for too long. Second, given that two of Iran’s crucial partners, China and Syria (for different reasons), need the Straits of Hormuz to remain open, Iran is unlikely to endanger that supply route—it would turn India, Japan and others against Iran and that’s not in its interest.

Iran would find kindred spirits in Turkey, Syria, China and Russia as they face the US-Israel duo in the Middle East. Israel is staying low and out of sight—Iran’s oftrepeated threat of wiping it off the face of the earth resonates in Jerusalem. Just like the 1979 hostage crisis continues to resonate in the US which colours US-Iran relations. US President Donald Trump said America does not want war or regime change. Iran has a much longer memory, so this line may not cut ice.

The game changer would be a nuclear escalation—Iran has breached two redlines of the nuclear deal with the US. Will Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, open the spigot on Iran’s nuclear breach? That would converge the regional crisis with the nuclear one. That could invite not only a US response, but more devastatingly, an Israeli response. Soleimani’s assassination has brought the US back in the thick of Middle East politics, complete with extra troops and military firepower. As during the Obama years, it will take US’ eyes off the ball in the Indo-Pacific, in South China Sea and in China. This will affect Indian strategies in the region just as it did post 2012.

India will ready its contingency evacuation plans, just in case things get ugly for the diaspora in the Gulf region, but that is now a relatively easier exercise, having done it several times. India will have to keep a keen eye out on Afghanistan, which could return into a geopolitical conflict theatre. Pakistan will attempt to fish in troubled waters, but frankly, India is now better able to take care of that. Also, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation has more important things to worry about now rather than a discussion on Kashmir.

For India, the bigger strategic choice will have to be made if the region does descend into an overt conflict situation between the Arab states and its old strategic partner, Iran and even Israel. Unlike in the past, Indian interests in the region are broader and deeper than ever before. There will be hell to pay in the aftermath of Soleimani’s assassination. The world doesn’t yet know exactly how the chips will fall. But it will not be good. Fantasy thought: everybody will see sense, walk back from the precipice and a peace deal could be written. Fat chance.

Source: Economic Times